A new analysis by the Brussels-based Future of Technology Institute (FOTI) has issued a stark warning: much of Europe’s national defense infrastructure is precariously dependent on US-based cloud providers. This reliance creates a geopolitical “kill switch” risk, where Washington could potentially disrupt military operations through legal mandates or economic sanctions.
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The “Kill Switch” Mechanism
The core of the concern lies in the legal and technical control US tech giants hold over their infrastructure. Under the US CLOUD Act, the American government has the authority to subpoena data stored by US companies, regardless of where that data is physically located.
Furthermore, even if data remains private, the technical dependency on US providers creates a massive vulnerability. Because military cloud systems require constant updates and maintenance from the provider, the imposition of US sanctions could effectively “turn off” critical defense services.
“A kind of kill switch risk from the United States is no longer some sort of theoretical discussion,” says Cori Crider, Executive Director of FOTI. “This is a genuine, imminent risk that Europe doesn’t have the luxury to ignore anymore.”
The study cites two recent precedents to illustrate this risk:
– Legal Precedent: In 2025, Microsoft reportedly blocked the accounts of the International Criminal Court (ICC) chief prosecutor following US sanctions.
– Operational Precedent: Maxar Technologies reportedly restricted satellite imagery access for Ukraine after the US paused intelligence sharing.
Mapping the Risk: Who is Most Vulnerable?
The FOTI study categorized European nations based on their level of exposure to US technology:
🔴 High Risk (Direct Dependency)
Sixteen countries are considered highly vulnerable because they rely directly on US cloud services that are not “air-gapped” (physically isolated from the global internet). These systems remain tethered to US providers for essential software updates and maintenance.
* Countries: Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom.
🟡 Medium Risk (Indirect Dependency)
Seven countries face medium risk because, while they use European contractors, those contractors build their systems using US “hyperscaler” technology.
* Countries: Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain, and the Netherlands.
🟢 The Outliers
- Austria: Currently the only nation identified as being truly independent. The Austrian Ministry of Defense has shifted toward open-source alternatives like NextCloud and LibreOffice, moving thousands of workstations away from Microsoft ecosystems.
- The Netherlands: While currently at medium risk, the Netherlands is attempting to lead Europe toward “sovereign” solutions through a partnership between its Ministry of Defense, KPN, and Thales to build a cloud independent of US providers.
The Illusion of “Sovereign Clouds”
In response to growing European demands for technological autonomy, giants like Amazon (AWS), Google, and Microsoft have launched “sovereign cloud” options. These services claim to store data within the EU and comply with local regulations.
However, FOTI researchers are skeptical, labeling these offerings as “sovereign-washing.” The argument is that while the data might stay in Europe, the underlying software and the ability to maintain it still reside with US corporations. If a geopolitical rift occurs, these companies would be legally unable to provide the updates necessary to keep the systems running.
Why This Matters for European Security
This dependency highlights a fundamental tension in modern warfare: technological efficiency versus strategic autonomy. While US cloud providers offer unparalleled scale and advanced capabilities, they also export American legal and political influence directly into the heart of European defense ministries.
As military operations become increasingly digitized, the ability to operate without the permission of a foreign power is becoming a cornerstone of national sovereignty.
Conclusion: Europe faces a significant strategic dilemma where its reliance on US cloud technology provides advanced capabilities but simultaneously creates a single point of failure that could be exploited during geopolitical conflicts.
